Here we are, April 30, 2018 the last day of the month. First 4 months have been a blast to trade. The ups and downs and yet we are all still here! Before we start the summer trading season, you know when they tell you to "Sell in May". Let's take a look at what potentially lies ahead. 
All eyes this week are on Apple earnings. Did you know that Apple (Ticker Symbol: AAPL) makes up nearly 11% of the QQQ ETF and 3.68% of the SPY ETF? I'm expecting to play it quiet today ahead of their earnings announcement after the bell on Tuesday. We have several names announcing this week and we posted a chart from Earnings Whisper in our room and you can view it below. In fact, I wrote a code for our members to add to their watchlist so they can see how many days until earnings and no more looking it up. Now of course our community of traders are always on their toes and update each other on earnings events and opportunities at hand when it comes to our favorite earnings trades. Check out this weeks earnings below and the code that all of our members received to add to their watchlist. 

So what does the week have ahead? We've already seen a great report out by McDonald's that go the DOW moving and AAPL pre-earnings is moving. The $tick are calm but let me show you a few charts I posted for our members to give you an idea of where I think we're headed to. 

Now that the morning session of trading is over (I only like to trade to the European close), let's take a look at where we are from the charts I posted above as well as a some trades I've taken. 

Here's $400 on oil and $400 on S&P Futures. Oil trade last 7 minutes and the S&P futures trade combined was about 13 minutes. 20 minutes of trading, 3 trades, $800. You may say you hate Monday's but I love #MoneyMonday

On the S&P Futures, I had the $2665 area as support and that's where we currently sit. We break we can see $2757. 

Gold chart I want the gap fill and then bounce. We filled the gap and have since bounced 6 points higher. That's $600 per contract! 

Nasdaq update has lower to go and I'm target 6600 area. Possible 6575 and it's playing out as planned too. 

Someone tells me, "I'm a bonds guy. Using the squeeze and Fibonacci with the bonds has been a great play today. Check out the chart and the trade off my entry".

In fact, the month of April has been great success. Look at a few of the closed trades this month. The average risk has been about $280 per trade and we're a little over $3,400 in total profit. I still have positions on in eBay, SBUX and GRMN. I will hold these over into May. 

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​Before we get into the post earnings play let's take a look back at the results from some AMNZ trades that were done pre-earnings over the last year. Results don't lie. ​

I did an entire members blog post on the aerospace and defense sector and what I was looking at when it comes to the charts and multiple squeezes across the biggest names in the AeroSpace and Defense sector. The same set-up happened in the financial sector in January 2018 and again recently in Oil Stocks. Look at the squeezes when on XLE and the top 10 oil names inside. Notice how most all of them have already fired long. (New members receive this custom squeeze indicator)

What do you see when you are looking at this chart? We see an opportunity! Let's break it down a few charts at a time.

From start to finish we have to plan our trade and trade our plan. 

1. Recognize the consolidation and see the high at the time at $99.95
2. Use fibonacci to find entry levels and target levels. 
3. Used the squeeze to find a good spot to enter. 

Combine all the analysis and we was able to find a entry at the EMA crossover or at the fibonacci level depending on how aggressive you want to be or your trading style. As a bonus, our members also have access to change their chart candle colors for a better visual at seeing momentum shift. Check it out below

The chart setup is there so let's continue with out plan. 

1. Consolidation​
2. Fibonacci
3. Squeeze
4. Entry, strike selection and target. The entry could have been between April 5-April 10 around $94-$96 depending on your style. This is where a community of traders is helpful because everyone has their own technique. We take in everyone's perspective and respect their knowledge and it helps us be more precise in our trading. Strike selection was at the money and our target identified at $104.50. The stock is current trading at $101.50 and in the 3rd day of the squeeze firing long. We are looking for continuation to the target and profit taking has already started. The calls were purchased between $1.50-$2.00 each and are currently trading at $4.45 each. 

As you can see Devon purchased 6 at $1.95 for a total risk of $1,170. He recently sold 3 for $4.40 locking in $150 in profit ($440 X 3 =$1320-$1170-$150). He is now playing with house money and the 3 remaining contracts are all profit! Scaling out between now and the $104.50 target is ideal and whatever he sells them for is 100% profit. 

Here is another trader that has started scaling out who purchased these calls at $1.55 and has 1 runner left. That's a 200% return if you can't read it. Another oil name, this trader is up 100%. Remind me again of the gains you're getting with penny stocks? Great trade by everyone in the room. I love this group of traders and so will you!

**UPDATE April 16, 2018**
We have hit the target area on this chart. See below!
**UPDATE April 18, 2018**
VLO hit $108. We had a trader buy his options at $40 and sell for $200. 

I want to throw in a quick look at NFLX before I tell you why you should join today. It's earnings season and we have had some great earnings plays in Q1. One trader was up $28k in that time. We've already jumped on Q2 earnings and it started off with Netflix. Some said to short it as it couldn't break $300. We didn't believe it because again, we saw an opportunity. In two days, Netflix went from $304 to $317. Most of us bought in on April 2. Look up the price on that day and only our members know why we bought when we did! If you missed that we bought more at $300. You do not want to miss out on this earnings season. The big names are in play and there's still time. 

JOIN TODAY! Chat rooms are great for learning tactics. Having a chat room helped me with was the mental side of the game. Being able to talk to other traders whether as a whole or in private. When emotions get involved, we end up doing a lot of stupid things. Trading alongside Professionals every​day can help that. You’ll find people that you’ll begin to respect. You’ll see various techniques and can apply them to your trading style. You can emulate those that you like or share your style if you can make it easier for others to understand. I told our chat community yesterday that several new things are coming from a new platform to automated trading. Only those within our community will be able to get access to this first. We take care of each other in there. No egos, no one guru and we want everyone to succeed. Our motto is "TEAM WORK MAKES THE DREAM WORK".  We’re going to have TONS of traders and a huuuggge, interactive group of smart traders… 
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I'm not a huge fan of buying options on Monday but this chart looks great on a daily, weekly and monthly chart. I'm jumping in and while we do have earnings this week, let's see if a run into earnings can boost our position. This position isn't based on earnings but can only be thought of as a plus.

You can see the momentum has clearly shifted to the upside and if we can continue and clear the first hurdle of $59.50 and hold. I see a first target of $61, second target of $62 and max target of $64.50. To see how I set up this trade make sure you join our community today. The alert will be sent in our signals chat!
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Before I discuss this week's trade of the week and outlook, I want to do a quick check on Urban Outfitters, (April 1 Trade of the week). We were looking to take out $37.48 and it did. $URBN made  a high of $38.70 and the daily squeeze is just now firing long. I am still in this position to the long side. 

On to this week outlook. I'm watching Apple $AAPL. My thoughts are as $AAPL goes so does the market. Why is that? Apple is heavily weighted in the Nasdaq ETF QQQ, the biggest holding in SPY and 15% of the Technology ETF XLK. Click the images below to see.

If $AAPL breaks the Darvas box on the daily time frame at $165 we can head lower. If you look at the weekly Darvas box you'll see that $165 was resistance in a prior box and $AAPL is in a weekly squeeze.
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Apple current IV is 32% with and IV rank of 80%. At the current IV level we can determine what option strategy works best to play this to the downside. Want the IV Rank indicator? Just ask me in the King's Chat. 

We have been discussing the pre-earnings strategy with Apple and the results are shown below buying 3 various deltas. This is empirical data that has been traded and tested, not something we pulled out our butt. I promise you this too, we're not buying deep in the money, high delta positions. If we wanted to do that, we'd buy the stock but we want the benefit of buying options cheap and let implied volatility help us make the options even juicier! The actual results are posted inside our Earnings room. The goal is to get Apple at a discount this week by buying it at new lows if the $165 level breaks. 

What are my targets for Apple? What does that do the Nasdaq and S&P? What strategy to use based on this IV? See more in the members blog. To sign up for the members blog, CLICK HERE. 

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While Ruger $RGR may not be my first choice of weapon to buy (I prefer Glock and my conceal carry of choice is my Glock 27), I have traded the stock before at technical levels but this time it wasn't as much technicals when I traded it. Is this a wise choice to do? Probably not but I felt like getting my inner Axelrod on. You know the hit show series "Billions"? Were you mad when he shorted airline, hotel and shipping stocks at 9/11? Then the next plane hit and he doubled down? *SPOILER* What about season 3 when he received the alert of an earthquake and it hurt his funds positions because of a Tsunami? Sometimes these catastrophes can cause situations in the market place that we can predict as well. Same case is with Ruger. What happens whenever innocent Americans are targeted with mass shootings? Gun stocks always go up. Without getting political, gun control always becomes a topic and seems like those who are pro-gun go out and stock up in supplies and guns. Don't believe me? Chart doesn't lie. I'm looking at the Orlando shooting, Las Vegas shooting and the Florida shooting. 
Orlando the price before the incident closed at $57.41. The high after the incident $63.57
Las Vegas price before the incident closed at $51.17. The high after the incident $55.13. 
Florida School shooting price before the incident closed at $48.75. The high after the incident $50.25. 
So some short term trades here but I want to look at a bigger picture and not trade off of news related events like this. Can we get a larger move? Let's dive into the technicals!

My latest position was after Florida incident and it also had some technicals that I considered. Let's take a look below.

We hit a 100 Fibonacci level and the red arrow shows you the day after the shooting. Now why did RGR go up but stop? That last swing high to low is a half way back (HWB) move as shown below. 

 So sure, after the event we hit a R level. Look at other clues here. What do you notice? We hit the 100% level and bounced back to the 50%, failed back to the 100% level and back to the 50. What happens next? A case of symmetry! We fail that 50% level and create a new low to a new 100% level. Beauty. Look at those two RED daily candles followed by a GREEN candle. Is this a reversal off the 100%? Does it do a HWB move higher? If you add additional Fibonacci levels to the previous wave you'll notice they create a cluster at the new 100% level. This area should be a good area of support and looking for a longer term buy opportunity here. 

Maybe you've heard that term before. If you haven't check this out. Contrary to popular belief this isn't something someone at some educational firm says and owns the saying to and says I can't re-create or be silenced about. It's information that a quick Google search can your friend in learning more! As we bounced off this new low at $43, we see the daily candle is green and from there we are looking to take out the previous days high before entering. You can see the red arrow that shows the candle where we entered this position on March 2, 2018. 

Planning the trade and trading the plan doesn't end there. What are the targets? We can see below the targets from taking the last two swing highs and running Fibonacci levels. Entry around $46.20 and our first conservative target would be the HWB move we've been seeing around $47.25 and $49.33 depending on which wave you look at. I want to focus on the Fibonacci Clusters around $49.33 - $50.82. That's my initial target. As you can see we hit this area. We took profits here but in a swing account I continued to hold. 

In our chat, we took profits around this area however I continued to hold in another account and as of this post, I continue to hold. I will sell end of the day today. Let's look at what played out and one of my new favorite price action patterns that I'm looking at. The bull flat pattern below has played out. What makes this a unique pattern and how does it work? I'll discuss below but let's look at the chart. 

You can see our entry level above $46.20. We hit the fib clusters mentioned and had some down to sideways action setting up this bull flag. We stayed inside the tight range and broke out. How does a bull flag work? You have the initial advance of price that we found off of Fibonacci levels. We had the flag form and then we broke out higher. So to find a target using this pattern you take the first initial advance low to high and draw a trend line. Then you duplicate it and go from the lowest point before the break and start it there. You can see these YELLOW lines on the chart above and how we have hit targets based on this pattern.

Now if you know me and how I trade you should know that I'm not using a flat pole I drew on a chart as an exit. I'm using Fibonacci! Remember those levels from the last swing high to low. The purple ones on a few charts ago? If we remove those and use our cheat codes we know we also have levels for additional upside targets. Let's take a look below. 

Here you can see the daily candle slow at the first target after the bull flag at $53.81. Then it stop twice at the next level at $55.41. Then last and at the top of our bull flag pole we hit the $56.75. So a $10 point over 1 month and you can see again, at the time of this post we are currently down after hitting the upper level. Do I take profits here or do I look to hit the larger wave high to low target at $59? I may close out today or continue to hold as I own April monthly options. 

I spent $350 a contract ($1,050) of risk and currently at a profit of $2,052. I've almost doubled my money and if I had sold yesterday I would have. Great trade hitting first targets and taking profit or waiting for the continuation and hitting these upside targets. 

So sure a sketchy play off some horrendous acts in the US but if we throw in technicals and plan our trade and trade the plan you can do great things when trading options. Don't trade off news but learn to analyze a chart and what is it telling you? If you want to sign up for our community chat room and get these alerts you need to JOIN NOW! 

Let's take a look at some of the common time frames that I use when doing my analysis and why they are important to me. A few things to note. There are 6 hours and 30 minutes a day when the market is open (not including holidays where the market closes early). That 6.5 hours is 390 minutes. Also it is important to remember that on each time frame 233t or 15 minute, each time that time elapse a new candle will print. 233 ticks before a new candle forms. 15 minutes before a new candle forms. 

Let's discuss each below and there are some that you don't see here but I'll talk about them. Also, I will show you how to add custom time frames to your charts. 

1. 233 tick 1 Day: Used for futures trading (233 is a Fibonacci sequence number)
2. 512 tick 1 Day: Used for futures trading
3. 2,3,5 minute 5 Day: Used for short term squeezes for intra day plays. 2, 3 & 5 are all Fibonacci sequence numbers. 
4. 15 minute 5 Day: Used for entries when trading stocks as well as short term squeeze plays for intraday trades
5. 30 minute 15 Day: Another shorter time frame chart for intraday plays. 390 minutes / 30 minutes = 13 which is a Fibonacci sequence number. 
   
6. 78 minute 30 Day: I prefer this over a 1 hour chart because 1 hour or 60 minutes doesn't divide equally into 6.5 hours/390 minutes. 390 / 78 = 5 and 5 is a Fibonacci sequence number.
7. 1 hour 20 Day: This is a standard chart and is used in my analysis but again, I prefer the 78 minute chart. 
8. 195 minute 90 Day: 195 minutes is the trading day split in half. 2 is a Fibonacci sequence number. This chart also gives you an indication of how the first half of the day is going and what to expect for the seconds half. This is a better chart than the 4 hour chart standard chart. 
9. 4 hour 180 Day: This is a standard chart and used for shorter time frame analysis
10. 1 Day 1 Year: This shows a daily candle for the previous year of trading. Great analysis chart for all trading
11. 2 Day & 3Day 1 Year: This gives you an early look at what the weekly chart is setting up as. It is also helpful with seeing a daily squeeze but not a weekly squeeze and easier to identify a trend on a larger time frame. 
12. Weekly 3 Year: The weekly chart is great for longer time frame analysis whether it is candlestick reading such as doji's or finding opening and closing levels of previous candles.
    
13. Monthly 5 year: Another great way to look at longer time frames for analysis just like the weekly.

Few things to note. You can expand any of these time frames to longer dates. Example: Weekly 10 year will show you a weekly candle for the past 10 years. These are sort of standard and I like to keep any Fibonacci sequence numbers I can. 

To add custom time frames go to the time frames and click customize time frames or go to you chart settings and click the Favorite Time Frames tab. It is there you can add your custom times frames by clicking Add time frame....
Couple notes: Intra day is 1 day to 360 days and Daily is 1 Month to Max Available. The tick option all you need to see is the 1 day. 
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Hopefully this helps and if you need to learn more you can download the ThinkorSwim Manual